One day, two directions: what this week’s mortgage rate split really means
On Wednesday, NatWest cut its mortgage rates. On the same day, TSB and Principality put theirs up. Nothing about the market changed between breakfast and lunch, but three lenders reached three different conclusions about where pricing should sit.
It capped a week where Barclays, Halifax, BM Solutions, Clydesdale, HSBC and Santander had all raised rates in the days before, pushing the average two-year fix to 5.9%, its highest point since April. No inflation figure and no Bank of England decision landed this week to explain any of it. The next MPC meeting isn’t until 5 November, so this one is entirely about lenders reading the same market and arriving at different answers.
Last updated: Friday 25 September 2026.
This week at a glance
| Six lenders raised rates between Monday and Wednesday. Barclays and Halifax on Monday, Clydesdale, HSBC and Santander on Tuesday, pushing the average two-year fix to 5.9%, its highest since 12 April | |
| Wednesday broke the pattern. NatWest and Keystone cut rates the same day TSB and Principality raised theirs | |
| No CPI release or Bank of England decision fell this week. The next MPC meeting is 5 November | |
| Remortgage lending is up 30% year on year, against a 2% fall in purchase lending, according to Mortgage Advice Bureau's half-year results | |
| Arrears remain broadly under control. Prime mortgages over 30 days in arrears ticked up to just 0.7% in July, from 0.6% a year earlier, a modest move given how far rates have risen | |
| Markets are pricing in further base rate rises, to around 4.4% by March 2027, well above the Bank of England's own survey of expectations, which points the other way |
The week before the split
Monday and Tuesday followed a straightforward pattern. Barclays raised residential remortgage rates by up to 25 basis points, with one broker noting the previous pricing had simply been cheap enough that a rise was unsurprising. Halifax raised home mover and first-time buyer rates by up to 0.11 percentage points, and BM Solutions pushed buy-to-let rates up by a quarter of a point.
Tuesday added Clydesdale, up to 0.19% on residential and a steeper 0.38% on buy-to-let, and HSBC, which raised rates across residential and buy-to-let without confirming the scale in advance. Santander withdrew a batch of products ahead of its own Wednesday repricing while quietly cutting its 95% LTV two-year fix by 0.06%, a small exception inside an otherwise upward move. By the close of Tuesday, the average two-year fix had reached 5.9%.
Rate moves this week
Then Wednesday split the market in half
23 September: cutters and raisers, same day
Cut rates
NatWest
Fee-free 2-year fix, 60% LTV: 5.36% → 5.28%
Keystone Property Finance
Also cut rates the same day
Raised rates
TSB
Raised rates, figures not published
Principality Building Society
Raised rates, figures not published
NatWest’s cuts were genuinely specific. Its fee-free two-year fixed purchase rate at 60% LTV fell from 5.36% to 5.28%, with smaller reductions across its fee-paying equivalents. Keystone Property Finance cut on the same day. TSB and Principality moved the other way, though the exact figures behind their increases weren’t published, so we’re reporting the direction, not a number we can’t verify.
There’s a smaller detail worth knowing too. When HSBC’s post-rise pricing was checked independently, the relationship between its two-year and five-year fixes wasn’t consistent across deposit sizes: the five-year cost more at 60% and 75% LTV, but came out cheaper than the two-year at 90% LTV. Even within a single lender’s range, the “safer” choice depends entirely on what deposit you’re working with.
Why lenders disagree about where rates are heading
Part of the answer is that the market itself is split. A reading of the SONIA swap curve on 22 September implied Bank Rate climbing from 3.75% to around 4.4% by March 2027 and nearly 4.9% by early 2028. That’s a genuinely different story to the Bank of England’s own June survey of market participants, whose median expectation was for rates to hold through the end of this year before falling to 3.63% in twelve months and 3.25% further out.
Worth being careful with the first figure. It comes from an independent rate-tracking site reading market pricing, not from the Bank of England itself, so treat it as one signal among several rather than a forecast. But the gap between what wholesale markets are pricing and what the Bank’s own respondents expect is precisely why fixed rates keep drifting up even with Bank Rate unchanged. Lenders are pricing against the more cautious of the two views.
What the wider numbers say
A few figures from this week worth knowing about, even without a headline data release to hang them on.
Industry data, H1 2026
MAB revenue growth
+8.6%
To £161m, led by remortgage activity
Market remortgage lending
+30%
Year on year, to £51.6bn
Market purchase lending
-2%
Year on year, to £87.6bn
Prime arrears, 30+ days
0.7%
Up from 0.6% a year earlier
Sources: Mortgage Advice Bureau H1 2026 results (22 September) and Morningstar DBRS arrears data (25 September).
Mortgage Advice Bureau’s chief executive put it plainly: growth has been led by refinancing, particularly product transfers, which keeps overall activity strong but contributes less revenue per case than a new purchase. PMS Mortgage Club reported similar momentum, with completions up 23% year on year and its strongest performance in five years expected. Arrears data from Morningstar DBRS, covering prime mortgages and a wider pool of 241 UK mortgage-backed transactions, showed only a small uptick despite everything rates have done this year, both measures remain well below where they peaked in March 2025.
One landlord-specific item landed too. Fleet Mortgages published guidance this week on the new Renters’ Rights Act property registration scheme, which rolls out in phases from December 2026 through to summer 2027 and will cost landlords £65 a year per property. On its own, that’s a modest figure. Stacked against this week’s buy-to-let rate rises at Barclays, Clydesdale and HSBC, it’s another line item landlords are now carrying that wasn’t there at the start of the year.
"Landlords have two separate cost increases stacking up this month and it's worth seeing them together rather than in isolation. Buy-to-let rates went up at Barclays, Clydesdale and HSBC this week, some by a fair amount, Clydesdale's BTL rise was 0.38 percentage points. On top of that, Fleet's just published guidance on the new Renters' Rights Act property registration scheme, which starts rolling out from December and costs £65 a year per property once it lands. Individually neither is dramatic. Together, across a decent-sized portfolio, they add up to a genuinely different cost base than landlords were working with at the start of the year."
Brennan Goodwin
Mortgage Adviser, Heron Financial
What to watch
What to watch
| Swap rates and gilt yields, not the Bank of England's calendar. With the next decision over a month away, these will do most of the work in moving fixed pricing between now and then | |
| The gap between market pricing and the Bank's own survey. If that gap narrows, either markets easing their rate expectations or the Bank's respondents turning more hawkish, it will likely show up in fixed rates within days | |
| Nationwide's next house price index, expected around the start of October, the first fresh reading in a few weeks | |
| The Autumn Budget, 28 October. Nothing was confirmed on stamp duty or property tax this week, but speculation will likely build as the date approaches |
What this means for you
If you’re remortgaging, this week is a genuinely good argument against assuming any single lender has the answer. NatWest and TSB moved in opposite directions on the same day. Whichever one you’d have thought to check first was only ever going to give you half the picture.
If you’re a landlord, the Fleet registration cost is small on its own, but it’s worth adding to your actual budget for next year rather than treating it as background noise, especially alongside this week’s buy-to-let rate rises.
If you’re weighing up when to lock in, the honest answer is that nobody, including the market itself, agrees on where rates go next. That’s exactly the environment where reserving a rate early and keeping the option to switch matters more than trying to time it perfectly.
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Frequently Asked Questions this Week
Why did some mortgage rates go up and others go down this week?
Different lenders reached different conclusions about pricing at the same time. NatWest and Keystone cut selected rates on 23 September, while TSB and Principality raised theirs the same day. It reflects each lender’s own funding position and appetite for new business rather than any single market-wide signal.
What is the average UK mortgage rate right now?
The average two-year fixed rate reached 5.9% this week, its highest point since 12 April 2026, according to Moneyfacts, following a run of increases from several major lenders.
When is the next Bank of England interest rate decision?
5 November 2026, followed by 17 December. No decision fell within the week of 21 to 25 September.
Is remortgage activity actually increasing?
Yes. Mortgage Advice Bureau’s half-year results showed remortgage lending across the market up 30% year on year, against a 2% fall in purchase lending, consistent with the large number of borrowers coming off historically low fixed rates this year.
Should I worry about mortgage arrears given rates have risen so much?
The data doesn’t currently support that concern. Prime mortgage arrears over 30 days stood at just 0.7% in July, only slightly up on 0.6% a year earlier, and both prime and wider arrears measures remain well below where they peaked in March 2025.
Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
This article is for information only and does not constitute financial advice. Rates quoted are accurate as at the dates stated and are subject to change or withdrawal without notice. Sources: Moneyfacts, Mortgage Advice Bureau, PMS Mortgage Club, Morningstar DBRS, Fleet Mortgages, and UK mortgage trade press published 21 to 25 September 2026.